The US and Chinese scientists have developed a novel computer model that can help accurately predict air pollution levels in the region a season in advance. The statistical model, described in the journal Science Advances, uses certain climatic patterns related to the oceans which have a regulatory effect on the wintertime air pollution over northern India. Researchers said the new model could allow the government to forecast aerosol pollution conditions in winter and accordingly improve plans for pollution control.
Meng Gao from the School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University in the US said the statistical prediction model, uses two autumn temperature variation patterns as predictors. The study found that the inter-annual variability of wintertime aerosol pollution over northern India is regulated mainly by a combination of El Nino — a climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean with a global impact on weather patterns — and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), a low-frequency mode of atmospheric variability of the southern hemisphere.
Both El Nino sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and AAO-induced anomalies can persist from autumn to winter, offering prospects for a pre-winter forecast of wintertime aerosol pollution over northern India, the researchers wrote in the research paper.